Analysis
As of 10:26 · the period does not apply here
What the numbers say, written down: the period in a few lines, the findings with the figures behind them, the days that left their usual band, where the month is heading and what to do first. The model interprets; it never adds a figure of its own.
1 Sep – 13 Sep against 19 Aug – 31 Aug
Written Mon 14 Sep, 08:30
The month so far in short
- Net revenue was ₺2,398,744 over 1 Sep – 13 Sep, +8.6% against the 13 days before it, from 2,475 orders at an average basket of ₺969.
- Web store gained ₺154,649 (+20.2%), the largest move of any channel.
- Trendyol ran −37.7% against its usual Thursday on 10 Sep with nothing on the calendar: ₺30,562 where ₺49,028 was expected.
- House Blend 1 kg has 3.2 days of stock left, Ethiopia Yirgacheffe 250 g 6.4 days.
Findings
Each one names the figures behind it; a chip opens the page that shows the figure.
- up+₺189,756
The month so far is +8.6% on the 13 days before it
Net revenue is +8.6% against the 13 days before it and +23.8% against what these weekdays usually bring (₺1,938,192). Orders moved +4.3% and the basket +4.1%.
- level
September points to ₺5.33M to ₺5.62M against a target of ₺5.47M
13 days in, the month stands at ₺2,398,744. Hitting the target takes ₺180,662 a day for the 17 days left; the month has run at ₺184,519 a day so far, discount days included. Trendyol is ahead of its own target. Hepsiburada and PttAVM are behind.
- up+₺62,569
Trendyol discount days brought ₺63K over the usual level
On the days inside this period (Tue 1 Sep) Trendyol made ₺111,322 against a usual ₺48,753. Orders placed in the run come back more often: 10.8% of their gross was cancelled or returned, against 7.7% in the four weeks before. What the campaign cost in discount and in the marketplace's fee is not in any seller API and is not known here.
- up+₺154,649
Web store moved the most
Web store gained ₺154,649 (+20.2%), the largest move of any channel.
- down−₺18,466
Trendyol ran 37.7% under its usual Thursday on 10 Sep
₺30,562 against an expected ₺49,028, outside the usual band of ₺46,853 to ₺51,203. Not on the calendar. Orders stopped between 09:10 and 15:40 and came back at once: the pattern of listings reading “sold out”. The stock feed from the order hub sent zeros that morning; ask the order hub for the sync log. The day after it made ₺47,578 against a usual ₺43,148: back inside its band.
- down
Two best sellers run out within a week
Five products run out within 15 days; together they carry 33.4% of the last four weeks' revenue. House Blend 1 kg has 3.2 days left at 17.7 a day, and 420 are due on 16 Sep. Ethiopia Yirgacheffe 250 g has 6.4 days and nothing on order: ordering by 16 Sep lands in time. A listing that runs dry slides down the marketplace's page, so the cost is more than the days it is empty; how much more is not known from the orders.
- down−₺49,875
Hand Grinder comes back about twice as often since 17 Aug
17.9% of its gross revenue has been cancelled or returned since 17 Aug, against 8.9% over the eight weeks before: ₺49,875 in all. Where a channel gives a reason, the claims point to a faulty unit rather than a change of mind. Only Trendyol, Hepsiburada and the web store give a reason, so the share of faulty units is not known for the rest.
The period in numbers
1 Sep – 13 Sep against 19 Aug – 31 Aug.
| Measure | The period | Before | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Net revenue | ₺2,398,744 | ₺2,208,988 | ▲ 8.6% |
| Gross revenue | ₺2,531,658 | ₺2,351,134 | ▲ 7.7% |
| Cancelled or returned | ₺132,915 | ₺142,146 | ▼ 6.5% |
| Cancel and return rate | 5.3% | 6.0% | ▼ 0.8 pt |
| Orders | 2,475 | 2,373 | ▲ 4.3% |
| Units | 4,851 | 4,554 | ▲ 6.5% |
| Average basket | ₺969 | ₺931 | ▲ 4.1% |
Unusual days
A channel's day set against the same weekday over the last four weeks, campaign days left out of the baseline. The calendar is asked before a day is called a surprise.
- Thu 10 SepTrendyolHigh
₺30,562 against an expected ₺49,028 · −37.7%
usual ₺47K to ₺51K expected ₺49K the day ₺31K
Not on the calendar. Orders stopped between 09:10 and 15:40 and came back at once: the pattern of listings reading “sold out”. The stock feed from the order hub sent zeros that morning; ask the order hub for the sync log.
- Wed 9 SepPttAVMLow
₺4,801 against an expected ₺3,305 · +45.3%
usual ₺2.9K to ₺3.7K expected ₺3.3K the day ₺4.8K
A small channel: a handful of orders moves the day. Nothing on the calendar.
- Wed 2 SepPazaramaLow
₺5,284 against an expected ₺3,733 · +41.5%
usual ₺2.8K to ₺4.7K expected ₺3.7K the day ₺5.3K
A small channel: a handful of orders moves the day. Nothing on the calendar.
- Tue 1 SepPttAVMLow
₺4,735 against an expected ₺3,480 · +36.1%
usual ₺2.3K to ₺4.7K expected ₺3.5K the day ₺4.7K
A small channel: a handful of orders moves the day. Nothing on the calendar.
What to do first
In order of how much it matters, with the desk it lands on. Omni proposes; people decide and act.
- 1
Order House Blend 1 kg (60 to 80 units, by 14 Sep) and Ethiopia Yirgacheffe 250 g (840 to 1,080 units, by 16 Sep).
They carry 18.9% of revenue and run out in 3.2 days and 6.4 days; the quantities cover the lead time plus four weeks at the current pace.
Highfor purchasing - 2
Ask the order hub for the stock sync log of 10 Sep, and add a rule that warns when a channel's stock feed turns to zero for many products at once.
Trendyol made ₺18,466 less than its usual Thursday. The order pattern says the listings read “sold out”; the log will say why, and the rule keeps it from lasting six hours again.
Highfor operations - 3
Decide whether to renew the Hepsiburada showcase slot, and set its fee against what it brought.
The channel made ₺39,298 a day with the slot and ₺18,379 a day since it ended, and it is heading for ₺807K to ₺903K against a target of ₺990K. The slot's fee is not in the orders; the marketplace manager has it.
Mediumfor marketplace manager - 4
Check the grinder batch received in mid-August with the supplier before the next order.
17.9% of its gross revenue has been cancelled or returned since 17 Aug, against 8.9% over the eight weeks before: ₺49,875 in all.
Mediumfor quality - 5
Write the brewing guide and the stock feed incident into the calendar as notes.
Neither is a campaign, so next week's expectation will count both days as ordinary. A note lets the baseline leave them out and the next brief read right.
Lowfor marketing
Sep 2026 against its target
13 days in, 17 to go. The forecast is the span between two estimates, never one figure.
Forecast, month end
₺5.33M to ₺5.62M
Target
₺5.47M
Of target
97.4% to 102.7%
- Run-rate. The month so far, stretched over the whole month.
- ₺5.54M
- Weekday pattern. Each remaining day filled with what that weekday did over the last four weeks.
- ₺5.41M
13 days in, 17 to go. The run-rate carries the discount days of 1 September, so it reads high; the weekday pattern carries the last week of August, so it does too. Hepsiburada and PttAVM are behind its own target; the rest hold the total near the line.
Ask the numbers
The figures in an answer come from the stored orders; the model only writes the sentence around them.
What it could not know
Said rather than papered over: a brief that hides its gaps cannot be trusted with the rest.
- Today (Mon 14 Sep) is still running and is left out; it is compared hour for hour on the Overview page.
- The comparison held Trendyol discount days (28 Aug – 1 Sep); every percentage against it understates the rise.
- The usual level comes from the same weekdays in the last four calm weeks. Most of those fall in August, a quieter month than September, so “above usual” flatters a little.
- Return reasons come from Web store, Trendyol and Hepsiburada only. Amazon, N11, Pazarama and PttAVM give none, so a reason is known for part of the amount.
- PttAVM was last read 26 minutes ago, against every 10 by schedule; its most recent orders may be missing.
- Ad spend, a marketplace's own promotions and campaign fees are in no seller API. Campaign effects are read off the calendar, and only what someone wrote there.
- No figure here was typed by the model: each one comes from the stored orders, and the chips under a finding name the page that shows it.
How the analyst works
Written every morning at 08:30 from the stored orders, and again whenever someone asks. A run takes a few minutes; the page keeps the last one until the next is ready.
- 1The numbers come from the stored orders; the sentences come from the model. The model is handed the figures, it does not add them up.
- 2Every finding names the figure behind it and the page that shows it. A figure with no source is not written.
- 3The model is given the company's context before it writes: the definitions, the campaign calendar, the targets and the decisions already taken.
- 4“Not known” is an answer. Ad spend, a marketplace's own promotions and the reason behind a return on four of the channels are in no API; the brief says so instead of guessing.